Market Update · September 4, 2026 · 6 min read
This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics told us the economy added 162,000 jobs in August. Forecasters had penciled in just 56,000. Construction added 22,000 positions. Real estate? We shed 3,200.
And mortgage rates? They ticked up maybe a hair.
As of yesterday, Freddie Mac's weekly survey pegged the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.71%—right where we've been camped for days. Today's jobs surprise barely registered. HousingWire's analysis summed it up neatly: "A lot is priced into the markets now, as the bond market did the heavy lifting for the Fed."
Translation? Bond investors already knew the economy was holding up. They'd already pushed yields higher over the past few weeks. By the time today's number landed, it was old news dressed in a fresh headline.
For my Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, and Delaware buyers, that's actually welcome clarity. Rates aren't lurching around every time a data point drops. But it also means we're parked in expensive territory for a while.
Fed Governor Chris Waller said yesterday he doesn't see the need to hike rates at the September meeting—unless data changes his mind. The data he's watching? Inflation. Specifically, next week's Consumer Price Index release.
Redfin's team pointed out that CPI is now the real catalyst. If inflation ticks down, the Fed can hold steady and rates might ease. If it creeps up, we could see another quarter-point hike, and mortgage rates would climb further.
I've been in enough open houses in Harford County and Baltimore County lately to tell you: buyers are tired. Not panicked—tired. They're tired of 6.7% rates on a $450,000 Cape Cod in Bel Air. They're tired of calculating whether they can stomach another $200 a month in interest if they wait until October. And they're especially tired of hearing "the market might get better soon" when nobody can promise when soon actually arrives.
So here's the teaching moment. Don't bet your house hunt on a Fed meeting. Watch inflation. If it cools, rates can breathe. If it doesn't, we grind higher. Either way, the home you need doesn't wait for perfect conditions.
Redfin reported today that new listings nationally are at their highest level since 2022. More inventory is hitting the market. That's good news for choice, negotiating room, maybe even a price concession here and there.
The problem? Pending sales dropped to their lowest level since February. Buyers are window-shopping, not writing offers.
I'm seeing the same pattern across Anne Arundel, Howard, and Montgomery Counties. Sellers are finally unlocking. Some got transferred. Some inherited a house. Some just decided 6.7% beats waiting for 5.5% that may never come. But the buyers who do show up are slow to move. They tour three times, request another inspection, ask for seller credits, then ghost for a week.
It's a weird stalemate. Inventory up, demand down, prices holding mostly flat because the good stuff still moves and the rest just sits.
If you've been waiting for more options before you buy in Baltimore City or Prince George's County, you've got them now. I wrote about this dynamic earlier today in "New Listings Hit 4-Year High—Why Maryland Buyers Have the Edge Now." The edge is real. You just have to use it.
Buried in today's news: HousingWire's report on how increased immigration enforcement is straining homebuilder schedules. ICE arrests rose from 32,545 in May to 49,571 in July. Builders in some markets are citing labor shortages, higher subcontractor bids, and missed closing deadlines.
I covered this on Monday in "Immigration Crackdown Slows Maryland New Construction—What Buyers Need to Know." It's hitting harder now. I've got two buyers under contract on new builds in Cecil County and both just got notices that their closings may slide four to six weeks. One of them already gave notice to their landlord.
If you're buying new construction anywhere in the Baltimore-Washington corridor, ask your builder today about their labor situation. Ask about contingency timelines. And if your lease or sale depends on that closing date, build in a cushion. The framers and finish crews that used to show up on schedule aren't always available anymore, and general contractors are paying premiums to find replacements.
This isn't a political column. It's a practical one. Enforcement policy is squeezing an already tight labor market, and your closing date is caught in the middle.
Let's bring it home.
Harford County: Listings are up slightly. Homes in Bel Air and Fallston that would've had five offers in May are now sitting for 20 days and selling at or just under ask. If you're a buyer, this is your moment to negotiate inspection repairs and maybe a rate buy-down credit. If you're a seller, price it right the first time. The days of "let's try this number and see" are over.
Howard County: Still tight, but not frantic. Ellicott City and Columbia inventory is better than it was six months ago. Buyers have choices. But good school districts still move fast, especially if you're priced under $600,000. I had a listing there close last week after three days and four offers—but it was immaculate, priced at market, and the sellers paid $4,000 toward the buyer's closing costs.
Charles County: The commuter crowd is watching gas prices and mortgage rates and doing math. If both stay high, demand softens because the drive to D.C. or Joint Base Andrews starts to hurt. We're seeing more interest in the Route 5 corridor from buyers who work hybrid and only commute twice a week. I wrote about the trade-offs in "Charles County Schools: The Commuter Parent's Trade-Off" if you're weighing that decision.
Baltimore County and City: Investor share is dropping nationally—Cotality reported that single-family investor purchases fell by about 40,000 in Q2 compared to last year, down to 27% of sales. I'm seeing the same locally. Fewer flippers, fewer cash offers, more owner-occupants actually winning bids. That's a structural shift worth watching if you've been losing to all-cash investors for the past two years.
Twenty years in education taught me one thing: people learn faster when the stakes are real. Right now the stakes are interest rates near 7%, inventory finally improving, and an economy that's strong enough to keep the Fed cautious but not strong enough to make anyone feel rich.
You can wait for the perfect rate environment. Or you can find the right house in the right neighborhood, lock in today's price, and refinance if and when rates drop in 2027 or 2028. I've seen more regret from buyers who waited for perfect timing than from buyers who moved when the house made sense.
If you're ready to look at what's available in Cecil, Harford, Montgomery, or any of the counties I serve, let's start the conversation. I'm not here to sell you urgency. I'm here to show you what the numbers actually say and help you make a decision you won't second-guess in six months.
And if you're just browsing, check current listings here. Inventory is better than it's been in years. The question is whether you're ready to act on it.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“Owning a home is a keystone of wealth — both financial affluence and emotional security.” — Suze Orman