Market Update · August 28, 2026 · 7 min read
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered his annual address at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this morning, and mortgage markets didn't like what they heard. Warsh made it clear he'll vote to raise interest rates in September if economic data doesn't improve. Markets responded immediately—bond traders now see a 57.4% chance of a September hike, up sharply from earlier in the week.
Mortgage rates jumped in response. According to Freddie Mac's latest survey released yesterday, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.66%, with the 15-year at 5.98%. That's a three-week high, and it happened before Warsh even opened his mouth.
I spent twenty years teaching before I became a realtor. One thing I learned: when someone tells you exactly what they're planning to do, believe them the first time.
You might be thinking, "Kevin who? Jackson what?" Fair. But here's the translation for those of us buying and selling homes in Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, and Delaware: if the Fed raises rates in September, mortgage rates will likely climb higher still. We're not talking about abstract monetary policy. We're talking about your monthly payment.
On a $400,000 home with 10% down in Harford County, the difference between 6.0% and 6.66% is about $170 a month. Over thirty years, that's real money—more than $61,000 in additional interest. For buyers in Anne Arundel or Baltimore City looking at higher price points, the math gets worse fast.
I had a buyer tour a home in Bel Air last weekend. Beautiful property, needed some updating but priced right. He'd been pre-approved three months ago at 6.3%. By the time we sat down to write an offer, his rate had climbed. He's still moving forward, but his budget just got tighter.
Buried in today's headlines is something that will matter more than Jackson Hole in six months: ICE raids are freezing homebuilding across the country. Workers, including those here legally, are getting swept up in enforcement actions. Job sites are going quiet.
This doesn't show up in the data yet. But it will.
Here's what I'm watching in our local markets: new home inventory is already elevated—we covered that in yesterday's post about builders sitting on 9.6 months of supply. If construction slows because labor dries up, that inventory won't refresh. Builders finish what's started, then... nothing. In twelve to eighteen months, we could face a supply crunch right when demand picks back up.
I'm not making a political statement. I'm reading the industry data and connecting dots. Cecil County, York County PA, New Castle County DE—all have active homebuilding. All depend on the same labor pool. When that pool shrinks, projects stall.
Don't panic. But don't wait for perfect conditions that aren't coming.
Lock your rate if you're serious. Most lenders offer 60- to 90-day locks. If you're genuinely ready to buy in the next two months, lock now before the September Fed meeting. Yes, it costs a bit more if rates fall (they won't), but it protects you if Warsh follows through.
Get pre-approved again. If your pre-approval is more than 45 days old, update it. Rates have moved. Your buying power has changed. I've seen buyers get surprised at the table because they assumed their March letter still applied in August. It doesn't.
Consider the 15-year. At 5.98%, the 15-year fixed is nearly 70 basis points cheaper than the 30-year. If your budget allows the higher monthly payment, you'll save a staggering amount in interest. I know conventional wisdom says take the 30 and invest the difference. In this rate environment, I'm not sure that math works for everyone.
Look at new construction strategically. Builders are offering concessions we haven't seen in years. Rate buydowns, closing cost credits, upgrades. New home sales fell sharply in July, which means builders are motivated. If you've been browsing resale inventory in Howard or Montgomery County, spend an afternoon touring new communities. The numbers might surprise you.
You can browse current listings across all my markets—Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, and Delaware—right here.
New listings hit a four-month high last week, but buyer demand is slipping. That's a tough combination if you're pricing aggressively. The homes that are selling quickly—like San Diego's market, where days-on-market dropped eight days year-over-year—are priced right and show well.
Maryland isn't San Diego. We don't have the same supply constraints or job growth. Which means your pricing strategy matters even more.
I've said this before: the market doesn't care what you need to net. It cares what a buyer with a 6.66% mortgage rate can afford. If you're selling in Prince George's County or Charles County and competing with a builder offering a 5.5% buydown, you need to price accordingly or offer your own concessions.
Understand your net sheet before you list. Know what you'll actually walk away with after transfer taxes, recordation taxes, title fees, and agent commissions. Maryland's closing costs are higher than many states. Don't get surprised.
Warsh is caught between two bad options. Inflation hasn't fallen as fast as the Fed hoped—oil prices are pressuring fuel costs, and Zillow notes the 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high recently due to deficit concerns and the oil shock. If he doesn't raise rates, inflation could accelerate. If he does raise them, he risks tipping the economy into recession.
Housing is always one of the first dominoes to fall when the Fed tightens. We're seeing it already—mortgage demand remains stalled according to MBA data released today. Applications dropped 1.0% last week as rates climbed. Refinance activity is nearly nonexistent.
The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates directly, but it sets the tone. And today's tone was unambiguously hawkish.
Home price appreciation in our region has been modest. The latest Case-Shiller and FHFA data show prices edging higher nationally, but the gains are uneven geographically. Texas has become a buyer's market. Parts of California are moving faster.
Maryland sits somewhere in the middle. We're not seeing the bidding wars of 2021, but we're not seeing widespread price cuts either. Homes priced at market are moving. Homes priced 10% above comparable sales are sitting.
I pulled data on Baltimore County last week. Median days on market: 38. Not fast, not slow. For comparison, San Diego is at 32 days, down from 40 a year ago. We're stable, which in this environment is actually good news.
If you're a buyer on the fence, thinking you'll just rent another year, I have bad news. Zillow forecasts rent growth accelerating—up 13% from last month's projection. Single-family rents are expected to rise 2.1% this year, and that's the national average. In tight markets like parts of Maryland and DC, local rent growth could be higher.
Rents hit $1,962 nationally in July, the fastest pace of growth in over a year. Demand is strong, supply is narrowing. Nearly two in five rental listings still offer concessions, but those are disappearing.
Renting isn't the refuge it used to be. And unlike a mortgage, your rent will go up every single year.
I'm not trying to scare anyone into a transaction. But I do want you to understand the landscape. Mortgage rates are at 6.66%. The Fed Chair just signaled he's prepared to push them higher. Labor shortages are slowing construction. New listings are rising, but so are days on market. Rents are climbing faster than home prices in many markets.
There's no perfect time to buy or sell. There's only the time that makes sense for your situation. But waiting for 4% mortgage rates is like waiting for $2 gas. It's not happening anytime soon.
If you're a serious buyer in Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, or Delaware, let's talk about your options. If you're a seller trying to figure out pricing in this choppy market, let's look at the comps together. I spent two decades teaching people to solve problems with information, not emotion.
Reach out and let's figure out what makes sense for you—not what some Fed Chair in Wyoming thinks is best for inflation.
The market is what it is. Our job is to work within it.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“Location, location, location — the only real estate advice that has never once needed a market update.” — Old broker wisdom