Market Update · September 9, 2026 · 8 min read
Something shifted in August. Redfin reports that new listings hit their highest level since 2022, and total homes for sale climbed to levels we haven't seen since 2020. That's a six-year high in inventory.
Meanwhile, sales were "essentially flat month over month."
Translation: More sellers showed up to the party, but buyers stayed home.
If you're house-hunting in Harford County, Baltimore City, or anywhere in the Baltimore-Washington corridor right now, this is the market condition you've been waiting for. More supply. Stalled demand. That equals negotiating power you haven't had in years.
But here's the catch—mortgage rates are still sitting at 6.71% as of last week, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. That's not the 3% you remember from 2021, and it's enough to keep a lot of would-be buyers on the sidelines.
So we're stuck in this weird limbo. Inventory is up. Rates are high. And the question everyone's asking me at open houses is: Should I wait?
Here's where the data gets useful. AD Mortgage ran a study comparing buying a home now versus waiting across all states during a three-year period. Their finding? Buying now beat waiting in 61% of scenarios.
Sixty-one percent. That's not a slam dunk, but it's better odds than a coin flip.
The logic is straightforward. Yes, rates are high right now. But home prices don't typically fall just because rates rise—they slow down their climb. If you wait a year hoping for 5% rates, you might save $200/month in interest but pay $30,000 more for the same house because prices kept creeping up. Then you're worse off.
I wrote about this last week in my piece on break-even math. The short version: in most Maryland markets, if you're planning to stay put for at least four to six years, buying still pencils out ahead of renting—even at 6.71%.
But now, with inventory finally loosening up, you've got another advantage: choice. When I first started in real estate (after two decades teaching high schoolers who thought Julius Caesar was a salad), the hardest part of my job was managing buyer expectations in a market where three decent houses would come on the market in a week and all three would go under contract in 48 hours. Now? My buyers in Cecil and Harford Counties are actually scheduling second showings. They're asking for repairs. They're negotiating.
It feels almost normal again.
Redfin singled out San Jose, Nashville, and Seattle as cities driving the national jump in new listings. None of those are in my backyard, obviously. But the dynamic is similar across the Mid-Atlantic.
Sellers who sat tight for the past two years—waiting for rates to drop, waiting for the "right time," waiting for clarity—are finally listing. Some because they have to (job relocation, divorce, estate settlement). Others because they've realized rates aren't coming back to 3% anytime soon and life can't stay on hold forever.
I've seen this firsthand. I listed a home in northern Harford County last month where the seller had been "thinking about it" since 2024. What finally pushed him? His daughter got into a college three states away, and he didn't want to keep paying for a four-bedroom he was rattling around in alone. Life happens. Houses go on the market.
The result is a slow thaw. We're not drowning in inventory the way we were in 2019, but we're not starving for it the way we were in 2021-2023 either.
Now let's talk about the other side of the equation. Zillow's August report shows newly pending sales declining and buyer demand softening. They're forecasting continued softness in the for-sale market while rental demand picks up.
That rental trend is real. I'm hearing from clients who decided to rent another year rather than buy at 6.71%. It's a rational choice if you're not sure where you'll be in 24 months or if you're banking on the Fed cutting rates (spoiler: next week's CPI data will likely determine whether the Fed hikes again or holds steady—this is not a cutting environment).
But here's what renters need to know: Zillow's forecast projects single-family rents rising 2.1%, and their July rent report pegged the national median at $1,962, rising at the fastest pace in over a year. Rent in the Baltimore-Washington corridor? Higher. A two-bedroom in decent shape in Bel Air or Edgewood is easily $1,800-$2,200/month now, and you're building zero equity.
Meanwhile, if you're a buyer, you're walking into a market where sellers are finally feeling a little nervous. Multiple offers? Rare. Bidding wars? Practically extinct. Inspection repairs? Back on the table.
Tucked into today's headlines is something that could matter a lot if you're on the margins of mortgage qualification: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac just opened VantageScore 4.0 to all single-family lenders.
If that sounds like alphabet soup, here's the plain English: For decades, mortgage lenders have used your FICO score to decide if you qualify. VantageScore is a newer model that weighs your credit history a little differently—and for some borrowers (especially those with thinner credit files or past medical debt), it can produce a higher score than FICO.
The catch? Lenders can't mix the two on the same file. But if your loan officer runs VantageScore and it's better, that might be the difference between qualifying and not, or between a 6.71% rate and a 7.1% rate.
I talked about the earlier version of this shift a few days ago when the bi-merge rule was floated. Bottom line: if you're working with a lender and your credit is borderline, ask them to pull VantageScore 4.0. It costs nothing and it might open a door.
Let's bring this home to the counties I actually serve.
Harford County: Inventory is up, but we're still not flush. Homes priced right (and I mean actually right, not aspirational-Zillow-Zestimate right) are moving in 30-45 days. Homes priced 5-10% over comparable sales are sitting. Buyers have time to think. Sellers need to be realistic. If you're thinking of selling your house in Harford County, now is still a decent time—but your agent better know how to comp accurately and stage for today's speed, not 2021's.
Cecil County: A little slower, a little more forgiving. The commute to Aberdeen Proving Ground or Wilmington keeps demand steady, but we're seeing price cuts on anything that's been sitting past 60 days. I wrote about PCS buyers near APG a few days ago—military families relocating here are in a great spot right now because they can actually negotiate inspection items and closing cost credits.
Baltimore County and City: Inventory ticked up faster here than in the outer suburbs, which makes sense—urban and inner-ring suburban sellers are more rate-sensitive and more likely to have purchased in the 2019-2021 window when prices were lower. Buyers looking at Towson, Catonsville, or Fells Point have options again. It's not a buyer's bonanza, but it's no longer a gladiator arena either.
Montgomery, Howard, Anne Arundel, Prince George's: The D.C. bedroom communities are seeing the same national trend—more listings, stable-to-soft prices, longer days on market. These counties never got cheap, but the frenzy is over.
I'm going to give you the answer my students hated when I taught history: it depends.
If you're renting month-to-month, your lease is up in 60 days, and you've found a house you love in a neighborhood you want your kids to grow up in, don't wait. Lock it in. Marry the house, date the rate. If rates drop next year, you refinance. If they don't, you're still building equity and you're not writing a rent check to someone else's mortgage.
If you're comfortable where you are, your lease runs another year, and you're not sure where you'll be in 2028, wait. There's no penalty for patience right now. Inventory is rising. Prices aren't screaming higher. You can sit tight, save more for a down payment, and watch what the Fed does.
But if you're waiting for 4% rates to come galloping back, I'll tell you what I tell every client: don't hold your breath. The Mortgage News Daily commentary points out that oil prices and Treasury volatility are keeping rates elevated, and the Fed isn't even talking about cuts—they're debating whether to hike again at the September meeting.
You have leverage you didn't have six months ago. Use it.
Ask for a home warranty. Ask the seller to cover your first year of HOA dues. Ask for the dishwasher to be replaced or the roof inspection to come back clean before you waive contingencies. The balance of power has shifted just enough that reasonable requests are getting reasonable responses.
And if you want to see what's actually available—not just the stale listings that have been sitting since July—check out my current listings or reach out directly. I'll walk you through what's realistic in your price range, in your target neighborhood, with your timeline.
This isn't 2021. But it's also not 2019. It's somewhere in between, and if you know how to read the room, there are deals to be made.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“The best time to buy a home was five years ago. The second best time is after we talk.” — Every honest realtor, eventually