Market Update · August 12, 2026 · 7 min read
Inflation cooled to 3.4% in July, according to today's Consumer Price Index report. That's right in line with what economists expected. No surprises.
Core inflation—the number that strips out food and energy—came in at 0.215% month-over-month, which annualizes to about 2.58%. Still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, but heading in the right direction.
And mortgage rates? They barely budged. The Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending August 6 pegged the 30-year fixed rate at 6.69%. The 15-year sat at 6.01%.
Mortgage News Daily reported that lenders had "no major reaction" to the CPI data. Rates have been hovering in this range for weeks now, tethered more to geopolitical oil shocks and Fed speculation than to any single data point.
Let's be blunt. Rates in the high sixes aren't great. They're not catastrophic, either—we've seen worse in the past year. But they're high enough to keep a lot of would-be buyers on the sidelines.
Redfin reported that U.S. home sales dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years in July. Near-record home prices, elevated mortgage rates, and economic instability drove the decline. Texas and Seattle led the drop, but the slowdown is national.
Here in our corner of the Mid-Atlantic, I'm seeing the same thing. Harford County, Baltimore County, Anne Arundel, Howard—buyers are taking their time. The frenzy is gone. Open houses are quieter. Showings are down.
But here's the flip side: if you're serious about buying, you've got more breathing room than you've had in years.
Redfin also noted that well-priced, move-in-ready homes are still selling quickly, but sellers are increasingly adjusting their expectations. I saw this firsthand last weekend at an open house in Bel Air. Nice house, decent bones, but priced like it was still spring 2025. It sat. The seller dropped the price twice in three weeks.
Buyers have choices again. You can ask for closing cost help. You can negotiate repairs. You can take a week to think it over instead of writing an offer in the car on the way home from the showing.
That's a real shift, especially in Montgomery County and Prince George's County where the competition was absolutely brutal a year ago.
If you're weighing whether to jump in now or wait for rates to fall further, I wrote about that exact question last week. Short version: waiting for perfect conditions means you might wait forever. If you find the right house and the payment works for your budget, buy it. You can always refinance later if rates drop.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it. This is a tougher market for sellers than it was six months ago.
Zillow's July report showed that newly pending sales fell sharply from June as mortgage rates hit their highest point in a year. July's sales bump—7% year-over-year—was real, but leading indicators point to a slower second half.
Translation: if you're thinking about selling your house in Harford County or Baltimore County or anywhere else in my service area, don't assume it's going to fly off the market in 48 hours with multiple offers over ask. It might. But it also might not.
Here's what's working right now:
Price it right from day one. Overpricing and then chasing the market down with price cuts is a losing strategy. I'd rather start strong and attract serious buyers in the first two weeks than let a listing go stale.
Make it show-ready. Buyers have options now, so they're pickier. Fresh paint, clean carpets, decluttered counters—it all matters. I laid out my full prep checklist here if you want the no-nonsense version.
Be realistic about timing. We're heading into late summer, then fall. The school-year scramble is winding down. If your house doesn't sell in the next few weeks, it might sit until spring unless you're willing to adjust price or terms.
One more thing sellers need to know: the market is splitting along price tiers.
Zillow found that starter homes are piling up while luxury homes are flying off the market. Inventory is rising and price cuts are more common at the lower end, while high-end properties are still seeing competition and faster sales.
I'm seeing that here, too. A well-appointed home in Fallston or Cockeysville with a nice lot and updated finishes? Those are still moving. A cramped townhouse in need of work, priced at the top of the range? That's a harder sell right now.
It's not fair, but it's real. And it's driven by the same math we've been dealing with all year: high rates hurt affordability most at the entry level, where buyers are already stretching to qualify.
So where do rates go from here?
The honest answer is: nobody knows for sure. But we can read the tea leaves.
Zillow reported that the Federal Reserve held rates steady at its July meeting, but three policymakers pushed for a hike. The Committee is divided. Mortgage rates are expected to fall only to 6.4% by year-end, meaning the affordability tailwind buyers felt in the first half of 2026 may soon become a headwind.
Redfin noted that today's inflation report dims the odds of a September Fed rate hike. That's good news—no hike means rates are less likely to spike higher in the near term.
But oil prices are still a wildcard. Every time there's a rumor of progress on a peace deal with Iran, oil drops and rates ease a bit. Then the headlines shift and we're back where we started. It's exhausting to watch, and it makes it hard to plan.
My advice? Don't try to time the market. If you're buying, get pre-approved, know your budget, and be ready to move when the right house shows up. If you're selling, price it right and don't wait for some mythical "perfect" market that may never arrive.
One more headline caught my eye today. The National Association of REALTORS® reported that 91% of sellers in 2025 used an agent, while only 5% went the for-sale-by-owner route. AI tools are helping with listings—better photos, auto-generated descriptions, all that—but they're not replacing agents when it comes to net proceeds and risk control.
I spent 20 years in education before I got my real estate license. I know how to teach, and I know how to explain complicated stuff in plain English. AI can write a listing description. It can't walk you through a tricky appraisal, negotiate an inspection repair addendum, or tell you why that "great deal" in Edgewood might actually be a nightmare.
Technology is a tool. I use it every day. But the relationship part—the part where I listen to what you actually need and help you make a smart decision—that's still human work.
If you're thinking about buying or selling in Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania or Delaware, let's talk. I cover Cecil, Harford, Montgomery, Howard, Anne Arundel, Charles, Baltimore County and Baltimore City in Maryland; Prince George's County; Washington D.C.; York and Lancaster Counties in Pennsylvania; and New Castle County in Delaware. I'd be happy to walk you through what's happening in your specific neighborhood and help you figure out your next move.
You can also browse current listings here to get a sense of what's out there right now.
Inflation is cooling. Rates are holding steady in the high sixes. Sales are down, but serious buyers have more power than they've had in years. Sellers need to be realistic about pricing and timing.
It's not a perfect market. But it's a workable one, especially if you've got good information and someone in your corner who knows the local terrain.
If you want to dig deeper into what's happening across Maryland right now, I wrote a full market check-in earlier this week that breaks down inventory, prices, and what I'm seeing county by county.
And if you're new to the buyer side of things and feeling overwhelmed by all this, start here. It's what I tell every first-time buyer before we ever look at a single house.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“Home is the nicest word there is.” — Laura Ingalls Wilder