Market Update · September 5, 2026 · 7 min read
I had coffee last week with a builder who's framing homes in northern Harford County. He looked tired. Not "end of summer" tired—more like "I don't know how to schedule the next three months" tired.
His concrete crew? Gone. Two framers called Wednesday to say they couldn't honor the Thursday bid. A drywall subcontractor who's been reliable for eight years just told him October closings are now January closings.
This isn't anecdote. HousingWire reported Friday that ICE arrests climbed from 32,545 in May to 49,571 in July—a 52% jump in sixty days. Homebuilders across the country are citing delays, higher bids, and missed settlement dates. Some banks are starting to ask questions about construction lines when projects slip past their original timelines.
Maryland sits right in the middle of this. We've got active new-home communities in Cecil, Harford, Carroll, Frederick, Howard, Charles, and Anne Arundel. A lot of my buyers in those counties are under contract for homes that haven't been built yet. And now the schedule is anyone's guess.
First, your builder's timeline was always optimistic. You knew that. But add 60 to 90 days to whatever they told you in July, and you're probably closer to reality now.
Second, if your rate lock expires before settlement, you're going to pay for an extension or re-lock at whatever the market gives you that week. Freddie Mac's latest survey puts the 30-year fixed at 6.71% as of September 3rd. That's not moving much, even after Friday's jobs report beat expectations by a mile—162,000 new jobs versus the 56,000 economists forecast, according to HousingWire.
Normally a jobs beat like that sends mortgage rates up hard and fast. Didn't happen. Mortgage News Daily noted the bond market had already priced in a lot of this uncertainty, so rates only ticked up slightly. But they're still hovering near the highest level we've seen in more than a year.
If you're three months from a builder settlement and your lock expires in 45 days, talk to your lender now about extension pricing. I wrote about what a rate lock extension actually costs and why it happens a few days ago—it's not free, and it's not automatic.
Third, your builder may come back and ask for a price adjustment or try to renegotiate specs. I haven't seen that yet in Maryland, but I'm hearing it's starting in markets where labor vanished overnight. Tread carefully. Get everything in writing. If the builder tries to change the contract, your attorney (you have one, right?) needs to see it before you initial anything.
Friday's jobs number was strong. Construction alone added 22,000 jobs. Unemployment held at 4.1%. Under normal circumstances, that would spook the bond market into thinking the Fed has room to hike rates again, and mortgage rates would have jumped a quarter point by noon.
They didn't. HousingWire's analysis pointed out that the bond market did the heavy lifting before the Fed did. In other words, investors already expected this. Rates are high because inflation is still lurking and Treasury yields have been climbing for weeks.
The political noise isn't helping. President Trump urged the Federal Reserve Friday to cut rates after the jobs data came out, threatening to halt trade policy if they don't. The Fed doesn't take orders, but the headline risk alone keeps buyers on edge.
What's next? The September Fed meeting is in ten days. Odds of a rate hike are still on the table, depending on next week's inflation data. If CPI comes in hotter than expected, all bets are off. If it cools, we might finally see some relief by October.
I'm not holding my breath.
While new construction slows and rates refuse to cooperate, the resale market is giving buyers a little bit of breathing room.
Redfin reported this week that new listings just hit a four-year high. That's significant. For two years we've been telling buyers "there's nothing out there." Now there's something out there. It's not a flood, but it's more than we've seen since 2022.
In Maryland, I'm seeing it in pockets. Harford County has a few more options than it did in June. Howard and Anne Arundel are seeing some movement. Baltimore County still feels tight, but even there I've had a buyer write an offer this week without five other bidders breathing down her neck.
The problem? Buyers aren't rushing in. Pending sales are down. Redfin noted they hit the lowest level since February. So we've got more supply and less demand, which should be great for buyers, except no one wants to lock in a 6.71% mortgage if they think rates might drop in three months.
I get it. But if you're looking at homes for sale in Harford County or anywhere in the Baltimore-Washington corridor right now, you've got more negotiating power than you did in the spring. Sellers are sitting longer. Some are dropping prices. I've had two appraisals in the last ten days come in under contract price, and in both cases the seller met us halfway instead of walking.
That wasn't happening in April.
You need to be realistic. I know what Zillow says your house is worth. I know your neighbor sold for $480K last year. But your neighbor sold in a market where rates were lower, inventory was tighter, and builders weren't delaying settlements by 90 days.
Price it right the first time. The first two weeks matter more than ever, because if you sit for 45 days, buyers assume something's wrong with the house.
Stage it. I don't mean hire someone (though that helps). I mean get the kids' shoes out of the foyer and put the dog crate in the basement. I wrote a whole post about why Harford County listing photos look like crime scenes, and it applies to every county I serve. First impressions are everything when buyers have twelve other options.
Be flexible on closing dates. If you've got a buyer who's selling their current home and needs 60 days, say yes. If a builder-contingent buyer wants 120 days, consider it. Inventory is up, but it's not up enough to be picky about timelines.
And if you're in Anne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, or Baltimore County and you're thinking about listing before Thanksgiving, call me now. September is already moving faster than I expected, and there's a reason September is one of the best-kept secrets for both buyers and sellers in Maryland.
The CPI report drops September 11th. If inflation ticks up, the Fed will seriously consider a hike at the September 17–18 meeting. If that happens, mortgage rates will jump before the meeting even ends.
If inflation cools, we might see rates drift down toward 6.5% by mid-October. Not a huge drop, but enough to pull some fence-sitters off the sidelines.
I'm also keeping an eye on the builder stories. If labor stays this tight through the fall, a lot of people who thought they'd be in a new house by Christmas are going to be looking at resale homes instead. That could shift demand back into the existing inventory, which would be good for sellers and frustrating for buyers who've been waiting for builders to finish.
And I'm watching the credit reporting changes. FHFA is opening the door to letting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac use just two credit reports instead of three—and maybe even VantageScore instead of FICO. That's a big deal for buyers with thin credit files, and it's coming faster than most people realize.
If you're waiting for the "perfect" market, you'll be waiting until 2028. Maybe longer.
If you're buying new construction in Maryland, add three months to your builder's timeline and lock your rate as late as possible. If you're buying resale, you've got more options and more leverage than you've had in years—use it. If you're selling, price it like it's September 2026, not September 2023.
And if you're anywhere in Cecil, Harford, Baltimore, Howard, Anne Arundel, Montgomery, Charles, or Prince George's County—or across the line in York, Lancaster, New Castle, or D.C.—and you want to talk through what this all means for your specific situation, let's talk. I've been doing this long enough to know that the headlines don't close deals. Conversations do.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“The house you looked at today and wanted to think about until tomorrow may be the same house someone looked at yesterday and will buy today.” — Koki Adasi