Market Update · August 20, 2026 · 8 min read
This week Freddie Mac's survey pegged the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.65 percent, down two basis points from last week. That's a tick in the right direction after three straight days of increases earlier this week, and Realtor.com noted the drop happened "despite bond market turmoil and growing concerns about federal debt."
Meanwhile, Redfin reported that new listings climbed 1.2 percent week-over-week during the four weeks ending August 16—the fifth straight week of gains and the highest level in more than three months. Sounds like good news for buyers starved for choice, right?
Here's the puzzle: pending home sales fell to their lowest level since March during that same stretch. High housing costs and what Redfin called "economic uncertainty" are keeping would-be buyers on the bench even as inventory finally trickles back onto the market.
I'm seeing that hesitation firsthand in Harford and Cecil Counties. Listings are sitting longer. Sellers who priced aggressively in July are quietly trimming asking prices in August. And buyers? They're showing up to open houses, taking the flyer, then vanishing for two weeks while they "think about it."
Let's ground this in our local counties: Baltimore County, Harford, Cecil, Anne Arundel, Howard, Montgomery, Charles, and Baltimore City in Maryland; Prince George's County and Washington, D.C.; York and Lancaster in Pennsylvania; New Castle County in Delaware.
Redfin's data showed U.S. home prices rose 0.27 percent month-over-month in July on a seasonally adjusted basis—essentially flat from June's 0.28 percent. Year-over-year, prices were up 3.4 percent, the fastest annual growth in a year. That modest appreciation signals we're not in free-fall, but we're also not in a frenzy.
In the Baltimore-Washington corridor, I'm watching two stories unfold at once.
First, sellers who've been locked into sub-4-percent mortgages for years are finally testing the waters, adding to that national uptick in new listings. A client in Bel Air just listed a four-bedroom colonial she bought in 2021. Her rate is 2.875 percent. She's moving for a job transfer and openly admitted she'd rather stay put if it were just about the money.
Second, buyers who can afford the monthly payment at 6.65 percent are pickier than ever. They've lived through a year of rate whiplash—remember, rates were flirting with the sevens not that long ago—and they're tired. One couple I'm working with in Howard County has seen fourteen homes since June. They've written zero offers. "We'll know it when we see it," they tell me. I believe them, but that kind of caution is why pending sales are sagging even as inventory grows.
Here's where it gets interesting for anyone trying to time a purchase or a listing. Mortgage News Daily explained that Wednesday's rate improvement came partly from the Treasury Department announcing it would double the size of its existing bond buyback program from $2 billion to $4 billion for 10- to 30-year maturities. That's a medium-sized deal, not the game-changer some headlines made it out to be, and it's definitely not quantitative easing.
But oil prices also played a role. MND noted we're "back on the pain wagon (which runs on oil)," meaning fuel price swings are once again driving bond market volatility, which in turn nudges mortgage rates around. The war and inflation fears haven't gone away; they've just moved offstage for a moment.
Translation for Maryland buyers and sellers: don't expect a smooth glide path down to five-point-something rates. We're in a phase where weekly moves of ten or twenty basis points in either direction are normal. If you're waiting for the "perfect" rate to list or buy, you might be waiting into 2027.
I wrote recently about mortgage rate buydowns that lenders don't always mention. That strategy makes more sense now than it did six months ago, especially if you're a buyer who wants to act while inventory is finally improving but can't stomach today's rate for thirty years.
Let's talk about what this means if you're thinking of selling in Harford, Cecil, Baltimore County, or anywhere in the region.
More listings mean more competition for your home. That's just math. But fewer pending sales mean the buyers who are active have leverage. They know you know the market has cooled. They're coming in under ask, asking for concessions, requesting repairs that would've been laughed off in 2022.
I had a listing in Harford County last month—a staging mistake on photo day cost that seller $18,000—and even after we corrected it, the final sale price was $12,000 below where I thought we'd land in May. The buyer's agent was polite but firm: "My clients have three other homes they're considering, and two of them are priced lower."
That's the new normal. Inventory is up, but it's not abundant. Buyers are cautious, but they're not gone. If you price right and prepare your home well, you'll sell. But if you're chasing last year's comps or hoping for a bidding war, you're going to sit.
Not everything is a slog right now.
Zillow's research showed that sales surged 7 percent in July compared to June, even though newly pending sales fell sharply as mortgage rates hit their highest point in a year. That July bump suggests there's still pent-up demand working its way through the system. People who went under contract in May and June when rates dipped are closing now, and they're adding to the "sold" column.
Also, new construction is finally slowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that new home purchase applications fell 5.7 percent annually in July, with an estimated sales pace of 647,000 units, down 3 percent from June. Builders have been undercutting resale inventory for two years by buying down rates and offering concessions. If that pipeline narrows, resale homes in good condition start to look more competitive again.
I talked about that dynamic in my post on how the July housing starts drop affects Maryland buyers. Fewer new homes coming online means less pressure on resale pricing, especially in submarkets like Cecil and Harford where builders have been active.
If you're buying: Don't wait for perfection. Rates in the mid-sixes are livable, especially if you plan to refinance in a year or two when (if) the Fed eases and inflation cools. More listings mean you finally have choices. Use that leverage to negotiate on price, repairs, or closing costs, but don't slow-walk offers hoping for a better deal next month. Pending sales are down because too many buyers are doing exactly that.
If you're selling: Price is everything right now. I don't care what Zillow's Zestimate says or what your neighbor's house sold for in 2024. The market you're entering today is different. Work with a local REALTOR® who knows comps in your ZIP code, not just your county. Stage intentionally. And if you get a reasonable offer in the first two weeks, take it seriously.
If you're on the fence: I get it. Rates aren't great, prices haven't cratered, and the headlines are grim. But life doesn't wait for ideal markets. I spent twenty years in education and leadership before I got my license, and the lesson I learned over and over is that people who wait for perfect conditions usually wait forever. If you need to move for a job, a growing family, aging parents, or just a change of scenery, let's talk. We'll make the numbers work.
You can always browse my current listings or reach out directly if you want to walk through your specific situation.
I don't have a crystal ball, and anyone who tells you they know where rates or prices will be in six months is guessing. But I do pay attention to the data and the signals from people who study this for a living.
Zillow's researchers pointed out that the Federal Reserve held rates steady in late July, but three policymakers voted for a hike. That divided vote tells you inflation is still a worry at the highest levels, and mortgage rates aren't likely to fall quickly or smoothly. Zillow's forecast has rates ending the year around 6.4 percent—better than today, but not by much.
Meanwhile, Zillow also published research showing that nationally, a typical household can save for and come out ahead on a home purchase compared to renting after about 15 years. In some expensive markets, that breakeven timeline stretches into retirement. That's sobering, but it also underscores why buying a home is still more about lifestyle and stability than short-term profit for most families.
Locally, I think we're in for a fall market that rewards patience and punishes optimism. Sellers who adapt will do fine. Buyers who act decisively will find opportunities. And everyone else will spend the holidays wondering what they missed.
One last thing. You've probably seen the headlines about Zillow cutting 500-plus jobs, including longtime executives. There's even chatter that Zillow might be having an "AOL moment" as private networks and direct buyer channels start to capture more value. I'm not going to speculate on what happens to the portals, but I will say this: real estate has always been a relationship business. Technology changes how we find each other, but it doesn't replace the conversation that happens at your kitchen table when you're deciding whether to list, what to offer, or when to walk away.
That's where I come in. Let's talk.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“A house is made of walls and beams; a home is built with love and dreams.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson (attributed)