Market Update · August 22, 2026 · 7 min read
Here's the headline: Freddie Mac's primary mortgage survey shows the 30-year fixed rate at 6.65% this week, down from 6.77% just seven days ago. That's the best news borrowers have seen in weeks.
But the National Association of REALTORS® reported Friday that pending home sales fell 2.3% in July compared to June—and they're down 2.2% year-over-year.
So rates drop, and signed contracts fall anyway.
What gives?
I spent twenty years teaching before I got into real estate, and the educator in me wants to walk you through this. Because if you're shopping for a home in Baltimore County, Harford, Anne Arundel, Montgomery, Howard, or anywhere across Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, or Delaware, this disconnect matters more than the rate itself.
Rates don't work in a vacuum. They're one lever in a machine that includes inventory, prices, buyer confidence, and the question every person asks before they sign: Can I actually afford this, and will I still feel good about it in six months?
July's pending sales slump happened before this week's rate drop hit the market. Buyers were wrestling with a 30-year rate closer to 6.8% and asking themselves hard questions.
But even as rates improved, the rest of the affordability equation stayed stuck. The Redfin Home Price Index shows U.S. home prices rose 3.4% year-over-year in July—the fastest annual growth in a year. In Maryland and the DC suburbs, we're seeing similar pressure, especially in Howard and Montgomery counties where strong school districts and tight inventory keep prices elevated.
Add in economic uncertainty, and you get hesitation. Buyers have more power than they did a year ago, and they know it. That's why 14% of contracts fell through in July, the highest rate since late 2023.
Let me bring this home to the markets I serve.
In Harford County, I'm still seeing multiple offers on well-priced listings under $400K, but anything north of $500K is sitting longer. Buyers are pickier. They'll walk if the inspection turns up deferred maintenance or if the seller won't budge on price. I wrote about that dynamic just yesterday—late August is traditionally a strong window for deal-making, but this year sellers need to be realistic.
In Anne Arundel and Baltimore County, inventory is better than it was six months ago, but it's not abundant. We're not in a buyer's market yet, but we're not in the frenzy of 2021, either. It's a negotiation market. Buyers can ask for repairs, credits, rate buy-downs. Sellers who price aggressively and refuse to negotiate are the ones watching their listings go stale.
Cecil County and the PA border markets—York and Lancaster—are seeing a different story. Affordability still draws buyers out from the Baltimore-Washington corridor, but the commute calculation has changed. Remote work isn't as flexible as it was two years ago, and buyers are weighing gas, time, and whether their employer will let them stay hybrid. Schools still matter. Cecil County's school reputation makes parents rethink their drive.
Montgomery and Howard counties? Still tight. These are wealthy, established markets with excellent infrastructure and schools. Prices held firm even when rates spiked. A modest rate drop to 6.65% helps, but it doesn't suddenly make a $650K townhouse affordable for a household earning $120K. The math is still hard.
National data gives us clues about the next six months.
Housing starts dropped in July, with builders pulling back on active construction even as building permits ticked up slightly. That's a bet on the future, not the present. Builders are watching rates, waiting to see if demand rebounds before they pour more slabs.
Redfin reported that new listings ticked up for five straight weeks through mid-August, the highest level in over three months. That's good. More inventory gives buyers choices and takes some of the edge off price growth.
But here's the rub: listings are rising because some sellers finally accepted that they won't get 2022 prices in a 6.65% rate environment. The homes hitting the market now are priced more realistically, or they're from sellers who have to move—job relocation, divorce, estate sales. Those are the listings that close.
I'm also watching what's happening with rents. Zillow reported that rents hit $1,962 in July, rising at the fastest pace in over a year. That puts pressure on renters to either accept higher costs or jump into homeownership if they can scrape together a down payment. For first-time buyers in Maryland, that tension is real. You're weighing a $2,200 rent in Towson or Columbia against a $2,600 mortgage payment (plus taxes, insurance, HOA) for a similar space you'd own.
Zillow also noted that nearly 2 in 5 rental listings still offer concessions—free months, waived fees. That tells me landlords are competing hard, even as rents rise on average. It's messy.
If you're actively looking, this rate drop to 6.65% is real money. On a $400,000 loan, you're saving roughly $50–$60 a month compared to 6.8%. Over 30 years, that's $18,000–$20,000.
But don't let the rate alone drive your decision. Ask yourself:
If you're working with a Maryland realtor who knows the local data—reach out to me here if you'd like to talk—they should be pulling comps, showing you what's actually closing (not just what's listed), and helping you understand whether a property is worth pursuing or whether you're better off waiting another few weeks.
Late August and mid-September are historically strong for buyers in this region. Redfin's analysis confirms that mid-September is the prime window for Baltimore. Sellers start to panic a little as the school year settles and they realize their spring listing didn't move. You gain leverage.
If you're thinking about listing this fall, price matters more than ever.
Pending sales fell 2.3% in July. That means fewer signed contracts, which leads to fewer closings in August and September. If you price aggressively and wait for a buyer to fall in love, you risk sitting on the market through October when inventory traditionally thins but so does buyer traffic.
I'm telling my sellers: price at or slightly below recent comps, make the house show-ready (I wrote about a staging mistake that cost a Harford County seller $18K), and be ready to negotiate. Buyers today have options. They're comparing your house to four others, and if you're the one who won't budge on a $3,000 credit for a new HVAC system, they'll move on.
Check out current listings here to see how homes in your area are priced and presented. It matters.
I see a lot of national housing news that doesn't mean much on the ground in Bel Air or Annapolis or Silver Spring. LoanDepot's stock price problems, Fannie Mae cutting executives, builder sentiment surveys—those are real stories, but they don't change what happens when you sit across from a listing agent at a kitchen table and make an offer.
What changes the game: your down payment, your credit, the price you're willing to pay, and whether the seller is motivated.
Rates at 6.65% are better than 7.2%, which is where we were earlier this year. But they're not 3.5%, and they won't be again anytime soon. So if you're waiting for "the perfect moment," you're going to wait a long time.
The market we have right now—modestly lower rates, rising inventory, nervous sellers, empowered buyers—is about as good as it's going to get for the rest of 2026. Use it.
If you're in Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, or Delaware and want someone to walk you through what these numbers mean for your situation—not the national average—let's talk. I've been doing this long enough to know that data is helpful, but conversations close deals.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“Buy land — they are not making it anymore.” — Mark Twain