Market Update · September 6, 2026 · 6 min read
Sellers are finally showing up.
New listings just hit a four-year high nationally, and I'm seeing it here too—in Harford, in Baltimore County, in Anne Arundel, even in parts of Howard where nothing moved for months. Open houses that used to get a trickle now see six or eight groups on a Sunday afternoon. That's good. More inventory means more choices, a little less bidding-war insanity, and actual time to think before you write an offer.
But here's the part that keeps me up at night: pending sales—the contracts buyers are signing right now—just fell to their lowest level since February. So we have more homes for sale than we've had in years, and buyers are... sitting on their hands.
Why?
Freddie Mac's survey for the week ending September 3 puts the 30-year fixed at 6.71%, up from 6.66% the week before. That's high. Not historically high—my parents bought at 14%—but high enough that it stings when you run the numbers on a $450,000 townhouse in Bel Air or a $600,000 single-family in Columbia.
Friday's jobs report should have shaken things loose. Payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, way above the 56,000 forecast, and unemployment held at 4.1%. Construction added 22,000 jobs, real estate lost 3,200. Strong jobs usually mean the Fed might hike rates to cool things off, which would push mortgage rates even higher.
Except rates barely moved. The bond market had already priced in most of this. Traders are waiting for next week's inflation numbers—the Consumer Price Index, out September 12—to see if the Fed really will hike at the meeting later this month. Until then, rates are stuck in a narrow, uncomfortable band and buyers are stuck waiting to see if 6.71% is as good as it's going to get or if they should hold out for something better that may never come.
I had a couple in Edgewood two weeks ago who got pre-approved at 6.5%, found a house they loved, then hesitated because they saw a headline about the Fed. Now that house is under contract with someone else and rates are higher. Timing the market is a losing game.
Let's talk about what I'm seeing on the ground in our counties.
Harford County: Inventory is up. Homes in Fallston, Churchville, even parts of Aberdeen are sitting a little longer—14, 18 days instead of the five-day frenzy we had last spring. But serious buyers with cash or solid financing are still winning. I closed a house in Forest Hill last week that had three offers; the winner waived the home inspection (don't do that, by the way) and came in $10K over ask.
Baltimore County: Listings in Towson, Perry Hall, and Dundalk are climbing. Some sellers are getting nervous and dropping prices after two weeks. If you've been priced out of the city and you're looking in the county, now's your window. I'm seeing more room to negotiate on closing costs and small repairs than I have in two years.
Howard and Anne Arundel: These markets are still tight, especially the good school districts. Ellicott City, Columbia, Severna Park—anything under $700K that's move-in ready goes fast. But even here, I'm getting calls from sellers asking why their house hasn't sold in ten days. Expectations haven't caught up to the new reality.
Montgomery and Prince George's: Montgomery is its own animal; close to D.C., close to everything, and inventory is trickling in but not flooding. Prince George's is seeing more activity from first-time buyers who got squeezed out of the District and are finally finding something they can afford in Bowie or Largo.
You can browse current Maryland listings here if you want to see what's actually available right now.
I think there are three things happening.
First, rates are high enough that monthly payments hurt, but not high enough that people think they'll crash anytime soon. So buyers wait, hoping for a drop that may not come until late 2027 or never.
Second, the headlines are confusing. Trump is threatening to halt trade if the Fed doesn't cut rates, Fed Governor Waller says they probably don't need to hike this month, and economists are all over the map. If you're not in this every day, it's paralyzing.
Third, people are tired. We've had two years of "rates are about to drop" followed by "nope, they're going up again." Buyers are exhausted. I get it. I spend half my day talking clients off the ledge.
But here's what I tell them: if you find a house you love, in a neighborhood that works for your commute and your kids and your life, and you can afford the payment today, buy it. You can always refinance later if rates drop. You can't get back the time you spent in a rental watching prices climb.
We covered this tension earlier in the week when the August jobs beat barely nudged rates and again when new listings hit that four-year high. Same story, different angle: the data says it's a decent time to buy, but psychology says wait.
One more thing.
If you're reading national housing news right now, be careful with the year-over-year numbers. HousingWire points out that last week's data was distorted by comparisons to Labor Day weekend 2025. Holiday weekends always skew the numbers because fewer people list or tour homes. So when you see a headline screaming that sales dropped 12% year-over-year, check the date. It might just be a calendar quirk.
This matters locally because Maryland's market moves fast in the spring and early summer, then slows in late August and September when families settle into school routines and everyone's exhausted from beach traffic. If you're comparing this September to last September, remember that last year we had rates in the low 6% range and a post-Labor Day surge that didn't repeat this time.
Context matters.
Next week's inflation report is the big one. If CPI comes in hot, the Fed will hike and rates will jump. If it's cool, maybe they hold steady and rates ease a bit. Either way, I don't think we're going back to 5% anytime soon, and I don't think we're heading to 8% unless something breaks badly.
In Maryland, I expect inventory to keep climbing through October. Sellers who held off all summer are finally pulling the trigger. Buyers who've been waiting for "the right time" are starting to realize this is the right time—not because rates are great, but because you have choices and a little bit of negotiating power for the first time in years.
If you're thinking about selling your house in Harford County, Baltimore County, or anywhere else in my coverage area, let's talk about pricing and timing before the October rush. If you're buying, let's get you pre-approved and looking now while you can actually take your time instead of writing an offer in a panic on a Sunday night.
Reach out here and we'll figure out what makes sense for your situation. No pressure, no sales pitch—just honest conversation about what's really happening in your market, not the national headlines.
I spent twenty years teaching. I'm not here to sell you something you don't need. I'm here to help you make a decision you won't regret.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“A house is made of walls and beams; a home is built with love and dreams.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson (attributed)