Market Update · September 7, 2026 · 7 min read
We spent years hearing buyers complain about inventory. Not enough homes. Bidding wars. Sellers holding tight because they had 3% mortgages and nowhere to go.
Now? New listings just hit their highest level in four years, according to Redfin's latest data. You'd think buyers would be lining up. Instead, pending sales dropped to their lowest level since February.
The reason is simple and painful: mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's survey this week pegged the 30-year fixed rate at 6.71%—the highest mark we've seen all year. And buyers across Maryland, D.C., Pennsylvania, and Delaware are doing what anyone would do when the math gets ugly. They're pausing.
I'm seeing it at open houses in Harford and Baltimore County. Foot traffic is lighter than it was in June. The folks who do show up are serious, but they're also doing a lot more mental math at the kitchen table before they write an offer.
In Anne Arundel and Howard County, where prices have stayed stubbornly high, buyers are more sensitive to rate moves than almost anywhere else in the state. A half-point jump in your rate can mean $300 more per month on a $500,000 home. That's real money, and it changes how aggressive people feel.
Even in Cecil County, where prices are more forgiving, I'm hearing the same hesitation. Buyers who were pre-approved at 6.2% in July are now looking at 6.71% and wondering if they should wait for the Fed to do something—anything—that might bring relief.
The problem? Waiting is its own gamble. More inventory is good, but it won't last forever if builders keep slowing down and sellers get spooked again.
The uptick in new listings isn't random. Sellers have been watching the same headlines we all have. They know the lock-in effect is real, but they also know life doesn't stop. Job transfers, divorces, estate sales, downsizing—those things keep happening whether rates are at 3% or 7%.
What changed is that some sellers finally decided they couldn't wait anymore. They're pricing more realistically, too, because they know buyers have options now.
But here's the catch: if rates keep climbing or the economy coughs, some of those listings will get pulled. I've already had two clients in Baltimore County pull their homes off the market in the past month because they didn't want to sell into uncertainty and then turn around and buy at a higher rate themselves.
That's the hidden story in the inventory number. It's good news today, but it's fragile.
Friday's jobs report added another layer of confusion. Payrolls came in at 162,000, way above the 56,000 forecast. Unemployment held steady at 4.1%. Strong labor market, right?
Normally that would mean rates spike. But Mortgage News Daily noted that bond markets barely flinched. The reaction was weirdly muted given how far the actual number beat expectations.
What does that mean for Maryland buyers? It means the Fed is stuck. They can't cut rates when the labor market is this hot, but they also can't hike much more without breaking something. We're in this strange purgatory where rates might stay elevated for months, not weeks.
I wrote about this dynamic a few days ago in "Jobs Report Barely Nudges Rates—Why Maryland Buyers Still Wait"—the theme hasn't changed. The data is strong enough to keep the Fed cautious, but not strong enough to give buyers any confidence about where we're heading.
Here's something I've noticed in the past two weeks: more buyers are asking about adjustable-rate mortgages. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that the ARM share of applications hit a five-week high last week.
That's not a huge number in absolute terms, but it's a shift. A year ago, almost nobody wanted to touch an ARM. Now, with 30-year fixed rates stuck near 6.7%, a 5/1 or 7/1 ARM at 6% or lower starts to look appealing—especially for buyers who don't plan to stay in the home forever.
And Redfin just published research showing that historically, ARMs have paid off for buyers about 70% of the time over the past half-century, mostly because people refinance into lower fixed rates before the adjustment period hits.
I'm not saying ARMs are right for everyone. But if you're a buyer in Montgomery or Prince George's County looking at a starter home you'll trade up from in five years, the math might actually work. Just make sure you understand the caps, the index, and what happens if you don't refinance.
If you're thinking about selling a home in Harford, Cecil, Baltimore, or Howard County, this is honestly not a terrible moment—despite the rate environment.
Why? Because your competition is still limited. Yes, new listings are up, but we're nowhere near pre-pandemic inventory levels. Buyers have more choice than they did six months ago, but they're not drowning in options.
That said, you cannot price like it's 2021. The days of listing high and letting a bidding war carry you are over. I've seen homes in Bel Air sit for 60 days because sellers priced $30,000 above what the comps said. By the time they dropped the price, buyers assumed something was wrong with the house.
Price it right on day one. Fix the obvious stuff. And for the love of all that's holy, hire someone who knows how to take a decent photo. Dark, blurry iPhone shots aren't doing you any favors when buyers are comparison-shopping across twenty listings instead of three.
If you want to talk strategy for your specific home and county, reach out here. I'll walk you through what's actually moving right now and what's just sitting.
One more thing that's flying under the radar: the settlement between Compass and NWMLS that's changing how "Coming Soon" listings work out west. I wrote about it in "Compass-NWMLS Settlement Changes 'Coming Soon' Rules—Will Maryland Follow?" earlier this week.
The short version: there's growing pressure to limit off-market tactics that give some buyers an unfair advantage. If Maryland's MLS systems follow suit, it could change how quickly homes hit the public market and who gets first crack at them.
For now, Coming Soon listings are still allowed here, but I'd keep an eye on this. The rules are shifting fast, and the NAR settlement that hits hard on September 17 is already forcing brokers to rethink how they operate. Speaking of which, if you're a buyer who hasn't signed a buyer agency agreement yet, that's about to become mandatory. Better to understand it now than scramble at the last minute.
If you're waiting for rates to drop below 6%, I can't promise that's happening anytime soon. The economic data is too mixed, the Fed is too cautious, and global factors—oil prices, trade fights, bond yields—are all keeping upward pressure on rates.
But inventory is better than it's been in years. You have negotiating power you didn't have in 2021 or 2022. Sellers are more realistic. Inspections are back. Appraisal gaps are shrinking.
And if you're buying in a market like Cecil or Harford County, where prices are more affordable to begin with, the rate environment stings less than it does in Montgomery or Howard.
The buyers who are winning right now are the ones who aren't trying to time the market perfectly. They're focused on finding the right house, negotiating hard, and locking in a rate they can live with—knowing they can always refinance later if things improve.
If you want to see what's actually available in your target county, browse my current listings here. And if you're tired of sitting on the sidelines wondering when the "right time" will arrive, let's talk. The right time is usually the one where you stop guessing and start moving.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“Owning a home is a keystone of wealth — both financial affluence and emotional security.” — Suze Orman