Market Update · August 22, 2026 · 5 min read
Redfin published new research this week identifying the best time to score a deal in metros across the country. Mid-September is Baltimore's sweet spot. Not early September. Not October. The two-week stretch starting around September 10.
I've been saying some version of this to clients for years, but now we have the data. Sellers who listed in June are tired. Inventory that didn't move in July is still sitting. And buyers who waited out the summer are finally circling back, checkbooks ready but confidence high.
That last part matters.
Because while mid-September may be the window, buyers across Maryland, D.C., Pennsylvania, and Delaware are already acting like they own the place. Redfin also reported that 14% of U.S. homebuying deals fell through in July—the highest share since November 2023. Fourteen percent. That means more than one in seven signed contracts died before closing.
Buyers are walking. And they're doing it with zero guilt.
Mortgage rates edged down to 6.65% this week, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. That's a hair lower than last week's 6.67%, but let's be honest—6.65% doesn't exactly spark a bidding war.
Still, something shifted. Inventory is up. Listings have climbed for five straight weeks, per Redfin's August 16 data. And while that's good news for buyers in Harford, Baltimore, Anne Arundel, Howard, and Montgomery counties, it's also why cancellations are spiking.
More options mean pickier buyers. A home inspection reveals a $4,000 HVAC issue? Walk. Appraisal comes in $10K low and the seller won't budge? Walk. Another house two streets over just dropped its price? Walk.
I watched this play out last month at a townhouse in Bel Air. The buyers were pre-approved, excited, moving from Pennsylvania. Then they found out the HOA had a special assessment coming. They asked the seller to cover half. Seller said no. Deal died on a Tuesday afternoon.
Two years ago that buyer would have gritted their teeth and closed anyway.
If you're selling a home in Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Harford, Cecil, or any of the counties I cover, this is not the market to play hardball. I'm not saying give the house away. But if a buyer asks for a reasonable credit after inspection, and your agent advises you to meet them halfway, listen.
Because that buyer has four other options saved on their phone. And one of them probably just dropped the price.
The homes moving quickly right now? Priced right from day one. Clean, decluttered, updated where it counts. I've seen this in Anne Arundel and Howard counties especially—luxury inventory is flying (Zillow noted the trend nationally), but starter homes are piling up. Buyers at the lower end are stretched thin, and they're walking away from anything that smells like a headache.
If you're thinking about listing soon and want to catch that mid-September Baltimore wave, we should talk now. Listing prep in late August beats a price drop in October every single time. Let's start the conversation here.
There was noise this week about Treasury bond buybacks and what the government can or can't do to lower mortgage rates. HousingWire covered it—yes, the government has levers, but don't hold your breath waiting for a magic 4% rate to reappear.
Here's what I tell my first-time buyers in York, Lancaster, Prince George's, and New Castle County: stop waiting for the perfect rate. You're not buying the rate. You're buying the house. Rates will move. You can refinance. But the three-bedroom in a good school district that checks all your boxes? Someone else will buy it while you're waiting for Powell to sneeze.
The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales slipped 2.3% in July and were down 2.2% year-over-year. Translation: fewer people are signing contracts. Which means less competition for you if you're ready to move now. I wrote about the pending sales drop earlier this week and the takeaway hasn't changed—this is a volume problem, not a rate problem.
So what does mid-September actually look like on the ground?
Expect sellers who've been on the market 60+ days to get real about pricing. Expect open houses to see thinner crowds but more serious attendees. Expect your offer to carry more weight than it did in May, even if you're asking for closing cost help.
I also expect inventory to stay elevated in Baltimore County, Harford, and Howard. We're not seeing the spring frenzy, and that's fine. What we are seeing is negotiation. Actual back-and-forth. Buyers who can ask for a home warranty or a radon mitigation credit without their agent laughing.
That's a functional market. And for buyers who've felt locked out for two years, it's a relief.
If you've been watching listings in Baltimore or the surrounding counties and waiting for the right moment, this is it. Not December when sellers have pulled their homes for the holidays. Not next spring when rates might be higher and everyone's tax refund just cleared. Now. Late August into mid-September.
I know 14% sounds scary if you're a seller. But here's the truth—most of those cancellations happened because the buyer learned something they needed to know. A bad inspection. A job loss. Cold feet about the neighborhood.
Better a canceled contract than a closed sale that turns into a lawsuit six months later.
I had a buyer back out of a contract in Harford County last fall. They were devastated. I told them: you just saved yourself from a house you didn't love in a town you weren't sure about. Three months later they found the right place in Bel Air, and they're still sending me photos of their vegetable garden.
The deals that close are the ones that should close. The rest? They were practice rounds.
If you're navigating this market as a buyer or seller and want someone who'll tell you the truth over coffee instead of a sales pitch, I'm around. Twenty years in education taught me that people learn best when you skip the jargon and just explain how things actually work. Reach out here and let's figure out your next move.
And if you're one of those buyers who keeps walking away from deals? Good. Be picky. This market finally lets you.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“The house you looked at today and wanted to think about until tomorrow may be the same house someone looked at yesterday and will buy today.” — Koki Adasi