Market Update · September 8, 2026 · 7 min read
Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey landed this week at 6.71% for a 30-year fixed, unchanged from last week. That's the headline.
Here's the story underneath: Optimal Blue reported that total mortgage rate locks fell 9% in August compared to July, even as their average conforming 30-year rate sat at 6.72% at month's end—nearly identical to Freddie's number.
So rates didn't move much. But activity fell off a cliff.
If you're trying to buy a home in Harford County or Baltimore County or anywhere across my Maryland, D.C., Pennsylvania, and Delaware footprint, that split tells you more about the next sixty days than any rate forecast.
I spent twenty-plus years in education before I became a realtor. One thing I learned: when attendance drops, something's happening outside the building.
Same here.
Lock volume is attendance. It's how many buyers actually walked into a lender's office (or Zoom room) and said, "Yes, I'll take this rate on this house." A 9% month-over-month drop means fewer people committed in August than July, even though the "price" of money barely budged.
Why does that matter to you?
Because it means one of three things is true:
I see all three in my open houses. The couple in Bel Air two Sundays ago loved the house but wanted "one more month" to see if the Fed would cut. The young family in Edgewood couldn't make the numbers work above 6.5%. And the buyers who are moving? They're pickier than I've seen in two years.
Meanwhile, the country's largest homebuilder just told Wall Street what it's planning for fiscal 2027. HousingWire reports that D.R. Horton expects to close between 82,000 and 86,000 homes—basically flat from this year—and they're keeping "discipline" as rates stay elevated.
Translation: they're not discounting their way into volume.
That's significant for Maryland buyers, especially in Howard and Anne Arundel Counties where new construction competes directly with resale inventory. If the biggest builder in America won't chase volume with price cuts, the regional and local builders won't either. You're not going to see fire sales on new builds this fall.
What you will see is builders offering rate buy-downs, closing cost credits, and upgrade incentives—anything except cutting the list price. I watched this playbook in 2018 and 2019. It works when rates are high but stable, because it lets the builder preserve the comp and the buyer preserve the monthly payment.
If you're considering new construction in places like Fallston, Havre de Grace, or out toward Rising Sun in Cecil County, ask about temporary rate buy-downs. A 2-1 buydown can drop your first-year rate to 4.71% and your second year to 5.71%, giving you two years to refinance if (when) rates fall. The builder pays the subsidy up front, you get breathing room, and everyone walks away happy.
Just read the fine print. Some builders tie the incentive to using their preferred lender, and sometimes that lender's base rate is higher than what you'd get shopping around.
You've probably noticed that every time someone mentions mortgage rates lately, oil prices and the Fed show up in the same sentence.
Here's why.
Redfin noted that August's jobs report—which came in at 162,000 new jobs versus the 56,000 forecast—"slightly increases the odds of a rate hike at the September Fed meeting." But they were quick to add that the real deciding factor is this week's inflation data, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due out soon.
At the same time, HousingWire's economics desk pointed out that commodity inflation—driven partly by oil—is running hot, but the Fed is still focused on core inflation, which strips out food and energy.
That's the triangle. Strong jobs keep the Fed from cutting rates. Oil shocks push headline inflation up. But the Fed watches core inflation, which has been stickier than anyone expected.
For Maryland buyers, this means mortgage rates aren't coming down fast. Mortgage News Daily reported top-tier 30-year rates at 6.89% today, "just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025," and noted that "rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended."
I can't control geopolitics. Neither can you. What I can tell you is that if you're waiting for 5% rates to buy a house in Baltimore City or Montgomery County, you're going to be waiting a while—and you'll be competing with everyone else who had the same idea once rates do fall.
Zillow's August market report landed with the headline "Elevated Rates Slow Home Sales as Buyer Demand Softens." They're seeing newly pending sales decline and mortgage costs rise, and they expect "softness in the for-sale market as rental demand picks up."
That tracks with what I'm seeing locally. I've had three seller consultations in the last two weeks where the owners are pivoting to landlord mode instead of listing. Rents are up—Zillow shows the national typical rent hit $1,962 in their July report, rising at the fastest pace in over a year—and if you can cover your mortgage and then some, why sell into a soft market?
But here's the thing about that strategy: being a landlord is a second job. It's not passive income unless you hire a property manager, and then it's less income. I'm not talking anyone out of it, but I do walk them through the math, the liability, the 2 a.m. phone calls about water heaters.
Sometimes they still choose it. Sometimes they realize they'd rather sell, take the equity, and simplify.
If you're wrestling with that decision in Harford, Cecil, or Baltimore County, let's talk. I've seen both sides enough times to help you think it through without a sales pitch.
The buyers who are moving in this market? They're the ones who've done the math and decided they'd rather own at 6.71% than rent at $2,400/month and watch prices drift up another year.
I wrote recently about the break-even math on buying versus renting in Maryland, and the short version is this: if you're planning to stay put five years or more, ownership still wins in most of our counties, even at today's rates.
Why? Because your principal and interest payment is fixed (assuming you didn't take an ARM, though Redfin's analysis of ARMs shows they've paid off for buyers about 70% of the time historically). Your rent is not fixed. Neither is your landlord's willingness to renew your lease.
The clients who closed with me in July and August knew that. They also knew that inventory is better than it's been in four years, so they had choices. Multiple offers are rare right now outside of a few hot pockets. Inspection negotiations are back. Sellers are covering closing costs again.
In other words, if you can afford the payment, this is a pretty good time to be a buyer in Maryland, even if the rate isn't pretty.
This week's inflation data will move the needle. If core CPI comes in hotter than expected, the Fed might hike at their September meeting—or at minimum, they'll signal that cuts are off the table for a while. That would push mortgage rates up another notch.
If CPI is tame, the Fed might hold steady, and mortgage rates could tick down slightly as bond markets price in eventual cuts.
Either way, we're not going back to 3% money anytime soon. The sooner buyers and sellers accept that, the sooner they can make decisions based on the market we have, not the one we remember.
I'm licensed across Maryland, D.C., Pennsylvania, and Delaware, serving everyone from first-time buyers near Aberdeen Proving Ground to move-up families in Howard County to downsizers in York and Lancaster. If you want to talk through what these rates and trends mean for your situation—no pressure, just teaching—reach out. That's what I'm here for.
And if you're just browsing to see what's out there, my listings are here. I update them daily, because in a market this finicky, yesterday's data doesn't help anyone.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“A house is made of walls and beams; a home is built with love and dreams.” — Ralph Waldo Emerson (attributed)