Market Update · September 10, 2026 · 7 min read
I spent this morning fielding texts from three different buyers in Harford and Baltimore Counties, all asking the same thing: "Did rates just jump again?"
Yes. They did.
Mortgage News Daily reports that rates popped today after the Treasury Department announced changes to its bond buyback program. The average lender is now quoting 6.89% on a top-tier 30-year fixed—just a hair below the highest mark we've seen since June 2025. For context, Freddie Mac's weekly survey had the 30-year at 6.71% as of September 3rd, so we've climbed nearly two-tenths of a point in less than a week.
Why does a Treasury buyback matter to someone trying to buy a townhouse in Bel Air or a rowhouse in Baltimore City? Because U.S. Treasury bonds are the backbone of the financial system. Mortgage rates shadow them closely. When the government fiddles with how it buys back its own debt—ostensibly for "liquidity and cash management," but let's be honest, it affects the yield curve—mortgage investors pay attention. Rates adjust. Your monthly payment adjusts.
And right now, that adjustment is upward.
Here's the weird part. While rates climbed, inventory kept climbing too.
Redfin reported that U.S. new listings hit their highest level since 2022 in August, and total homes for sale reached their highest level since 2020. That's a six-year high in active inventory. I wrote about this surge just yesterday, and the numbers hold locally. I'm seeing it in Cecil County. I'm seeing it in Anne Arundel. More signs. More days on market. More sellers who listed in July still waiting in September.
But here's the kicker: sales are flat. Zillow's August market report notes that pending sales are declining and buyer demand is softening. The combo of rising supply and stalled demand means buyers have leverage right now—if they can stomach the rate environment.
That's a big if.
One of the HousingWire pieces today talked about when housing market signals don't agree. It's a nerdy dive into comparing new listings, pending sales, and active inventory, and it's worth understanding because that's exactly where we are in Maryland right now.
New listings: up sharply.
Pending sales: down or flat.
Active inventory: climbing.
In my old life as an educator, I'd call this a "data conflict" that tells you to look closer. What it means on the ground in places like Howard, Montgomery, or Baltimore County is that sellers are finally coming off the fence (probably because they held out all summer hoping for a rate drop that never came), but buyers are tapping the brakes because rates went the other direction.
At last Saturday's open house in Fallston, I had a young couple walk through twice. They loved the house. They could afford the house at 6.5%. At 6.9%, their payment jumps $180 a month. They're thinking about it. That $180 is real money when you're also saving for daycare.
I get asked this every single day. Let me share something useful.
AD Mortgage just released a study showing that buying a home now beat waiting in 61% of scenarios when they modeled a three-year period across all states. Sixty-one percent. That's better than a coin flip, but not by as much as you'd think.
The math depends on two things: how much home prices rise while you wait, and whether rates actually fall enough to offset that price growth. Right now, appreciation has slowed (Zillow projects modest single-digit growth through year-end), but rates are sticky. Oil prices have climbed on Middle East tension, which keeps inflation expectations elevated, which keeps the Federal Reserve cautious, which keeps rates high.
Thursday and Friday this week we get PPI and CPI data—producer and consumer inflation numbers. Redfin noted that this week's inflation data could decide whether the Fed hikes rates at next week's meeting (yes, hikes—not cuts). If inflation comes in hotter than expected, we could see upward pressure. If it cools, maybe we get a breather.
But nobody knows. I don't. The Fed doesn't, not yet.
What I do know is that if you're waiting for 5% rates to come back, you may be waiting a very long time. And the break-even math I walked through earlier this week still holds: in Maryland, the typical household can come out ahead versus renting after about 15 years. If you're moving every three years, renting makes sense. If you're planting roots in Harford or Cecil County, buying still works—even at 6.89%.
Here's what buyers need to understand right now. You have more negotiating power than you've had in years.
Sellers who listed in June thinking they'd be under contract by August are still on the market. I'm seeing price cuts. I'm seeing sellers offering to cover closing costs or buy down your rate for the first year. I had a listing in Havre de Grace last month where the seller agreed to a $7,500 credit and a home warranty because the buyer had two other options and wasn't in a hurry.
That doesn't happen in a hot market.
Inventory is up. Demand is soft. You can take your time. You can ask for concessions. You can walk away if the inspection turns up issues. Six months ago, you couldn't.
If you've been sitting on the sidelines in Baltimore County or Montgomery County waiting for "the right time," this might be it—not because rates are low (they're not), but because selection is high and competition is low.
I'm going to be blunt with my seller clients, and I'll be blunt here.
If you're thinking about listing in Anne Arundel or Prince George's County right now, your pricing strategy matters more than it has in three years. Overpricing by even 5% in this market means you sit. You sit through September, you sit through October, and by Thanksgiving you're stale.
I just had a seller in Bel Air pull their listing after 68 days because we started too high. We're regrouping, adjusting the price, and we'll relist in two weeks. But we lost the peak of the fall market because we got greedy in July.
The data backs this up. HousingWire's piece on mixed signals points out that when new listings surge but pendings don't, it's a sign of price resistance. Buyers are looking. They're just not biting at these prices and these rates.
If you need to sell, price at or slightly below recent comps. If you want to test the market, wait until spring when buyer urgency typically picks back up.
All eyes are on the Fed meeting September 17th. Starting tomorrow, buyers in Maryland will also be navigating the new NAR settlement rules requiring signed buyer-agency agreements before touring homes—a whole separate layer of friction in an already cautious market.
But the Fed decision will hinge on inflation data we get this week. If CPI comes in cool, maybe we see rates ease back toward 6.7%. If it runs hot, we could be looking at 7% by month-end.
I can't predict it. What I can do is help you run the numbers, lock in a rate when it makes sense, and find a house that fits your budget at today's rate—not the rate you wish you had.
Because here's the truth I learned in 20 years of teaching: you can't wait for perfect conditions. You work with what's in front of you. Right now, what's in front of Maryland and DC buyers is higher inventory, softer competition, real negotiating power, and rates that are high but not historically crazy.
If you've been thinking about making a move in Harford, Cecil, Baltimore, Howard, or Montgomery Counties—or anywhere in my footprint across Maryland, DC, Pennsylvania, and Delaware—let's talk. The market isn't going to get simpler. But it is workable.
And I've got a pretty good track record of making the complicated feel manageable.
Take a look at what's available right now, or reach out and let's run your numbers. No pressure. Just honest math and a plan that makes sense for your situation.
Katrina Kirton Sherrod, REALTOR® · Samson Properties · Licensed in MD, DC, PA & DE · 443-616-9770 · Katrina@kkstherealtor.com
“Home is the nicest word there is.” — Laura Ingalls Wilder